Hillary Begins The Ascent

So, Hillary is running for president. That wasn't much of a surprise; the Leafs fired all their coaches the same day, and even that seemed slightly less inevitable.  What's weird is that because she's the presumptive winner of the Democratic nomination, there's a feeling that this whole side of the story is already over.  But that's not how it's supposed to work; this is an American election - it's supposed to be a constant story for two whole years.  Now we've got nothing to talk about for the next year-and-a-half.

By the way, some people have complained that referring to Hillary Clinton by her first name is sexist.  The argument is that we wouldn't do that for a man.  I'm not so sure: As a friend once pointed out, it's the pinnacle of success to be so famous that people just call you by your first name; it means you're right up there with Jesus.  True, most of the people with that combination of fame and unique-first-name to get the one-name treatment are women (hello, Oprah!) And famous men with unusual first names don't get it (I don't recall anyone discussing Obama as just "Barrack.")

But the fact is, there really doesn't seem to be any damage done by calling her by her first name. It's especially an odd complaint when you consider that the most sexist aspect of her name is the fact that she stopped using her maiden name (Rodham) when she decided to run for public office.

I know, people will be pointing out that she looked like a lock for the nomination in 2008, but then Obama came from out of nowhere to pass her by.  But there doesn't seem to be anyone like that here. Some people are pointing to Elizabeth Warren as a popular politician that people would rally around.  But the fact is that she has said she won't run.  And further, as much as I, too, like her, her cerebral and slightly nerdy charm won't win her much mainstream success.  She's someone who is well-suited to win over liberals, but few others.  Or, to put it another way, she isn't this election's Obama, she's this election's Howard Dean.

But what really makes me think that Hillary Clinton's victory in the primaries is inevitable is that American liberals have begun selling her to their fringe. She's a more centrist candidate with ties to business and a relatively conservative Democratic president, so she's just the sort of person who would cause the American left to find themselves a Nader to make a big statement, especially if they are going to get eighteen months to think about it.  Certainly, moderate or practical liberals sensed this backlash coming: I found lots of tweets on the weekend making the case that a Republican president would probably repeal Obamacare, invade Iran, and stack the Supreme Court, so this isn't a good time to back a third-party candidate.

Of course, that's going to be a difficult sell.  America's left-of-the-left never has taken responsibility for the consequences of the Nader vote, so I'm thinking it's going to take all the time until the election to win them over this time.  Considering the Republicans' difficulty winning the mainstream in recent presidential elections, the most important part of the election might just be Democrats convincing each other to vote.